Technological developments are steadily leading towards a future where the car handles much of the driving functions – but how much? From a hardware perspective, we are not that far away from full autonomy. From a software perspective, there will be many developments, especially from a fusion perspective, but we are not really far away. However, legislation and regulations could prove trickier. They are going to delay it, especially in Europe. From that perspective, we’re going to suffer significant delays that are not going to match with the technology we have at the moment.

As for consumer acceptance, this is likely to vary by generation. For the older generation, it’s going to be much harder to give away that control to something that is autonomous. For the younger generation, it will be easier because it allows them to be more efficient and they see mobility as a service rather than a pleasure. Overall, though, automation is a slow but inevitable process: It’s going to be much more autonomous. It will happen step by step, not overnight.

With technology improving every day, some industry players are aiming for a target of zero road deaths. But is Vision Zero possible in 20 years? We think it can be achieved, but it’s not going to be easy. Autonomous vehicles ask almost as many new questions as they answer, and nobody knows how the moral dilemmas will be resolved. If a computer is making all the decisions in a car, how does it decide what to do in a situation where it either protects the driver or protects the pedestrian? It’s not an easy answer, and who is going to programme that software to make that decision? At the end of the day, it’s more a right and wrong perspective, and how are we going to reach that?

At the same time, hacking poses many new safety concerns. Cyber security is one of the major automotive weaknesses we have at the moment, that’s why we’re seeing so many start-up companies showing up in this area. We’re talking hundreds and hundreds of start-ups, some of which are attracting investment from the bigger players because simply no-one knows how to deal with it. There’s no real solution to this issue.

Even 20 years down the line, we don’t see a complete solution to the risk of hacking. Look at banking, at telecommunications – hacking is happening every day. Cars are not going to be any different. There will be more niches within the automotive industry and cyber security is going to be a major niche.