With legislation likely to delay the arrival of self-driving vehicles, the greatest change in the next 20 years could come in the form of the ownership model. The future of the vehicle is all about transportation rather than car ownership, as we have it these days. There is no future for personal vehicles, especially in cities. Modern cities simply cannot afford that.

20 years ago branding depended on the hardware, the type of engine, how the car sounded and felt. These days, branding is more of a design thing, a feeling that can be easily adjusted by software

The industry of the future will be all about transportation as a cycle, starting with a pick-up point and ending with a drop-off location. Today, about 90% of the journey works well, using trains, buses, etc. The difficult part is the first mile and the last mile, the first 5% of the trip and the last 5% of the trip. In the long term, there is not going to be one perfect solution for the complete transportation cycle. That’s why we have niche services like Uber that have been successful because they focus on that last mile.

While rural areas may prove an exception, the overall trend is moving decidedly away from personal ownership. There might be very small niches where cars can be applied, like ride sharing, but the premise of car ownership – of personal driving or owning a car – is going to disappear very quickly in city driving.

What does that mean for the automotive industry? It means reduced sales and reduced production. 20 years down the line, there’s no way there can be as much production because one vehicle can be shared among three or four consumers.